National – Regional Labour Market Trends, August 2023
Vacancies stabilise at 2019 levels; regions outperform London
Key findings include:
- Vacancies nationally to decrease 27.7% on last year
- North West set to grow to nearly 10% of all national vacancies
- Public Sector and Not for Profit increase by 49% on 2022
- Only 2 of the top 20 recruiting firms will post more vacancies this year than last
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After a roller-coaster period, with record numbers of vacancies in 2022, there are signs the market is now starting to normalise, where by most accounts, it is now stabilising at the levels seen in 2019, so before the pandemic according to a new report by APSCo, and labour market data analysts Vacancysoft.
ANN SWAIN – Chief Executive of APSCo – Comments:
“Following a bumper 2022, the figures for 2023 were always likely to fall short. The decline we are seeing correlates with interest rate rises and their impact on vacancy volumes.”
London Returns to 2019 levels
Historically, London has been the centre of the UK economy and hit a peak of 230,912 vacancies in 2022, which constituted a 14.2% year-on-year increase. However, the forecast for 2023 paints a different picture, projecting a potential -38.6% year-on-year decline, driving vacancy totals down to approximately 141,000. However, as touched on before, this is broadly in line with the levels seen in 2019.
Public Sector surges, Technology in decline
The impact of quantitative tightening was first felt across the Technology, Media & Telecoms industry, as suddenly funding slowed and hiring stopped as a result. Hence whilst volumes reached a pinnacle in 2022 with an impressive 160,128 opportunities, the projection for 2023 reveals a significant -56.4% year-on-year drop. In contrast, it is the Public Sector and Not for Profit industries which are growing the fastest, with a remarkable 49.1% surge in 2023.
JAMES CHAPLIN – Chief Executive of VACANCYSOFT – Comments:
“Quantitative tightening, the closure of SVB and the associated impact on the money supply has meant that technology firms seeking capital are finding this a challenging market. However, good businesses continue to get funded, and there are signs the industry is starting to bounce back.”
Banks dominate recruitment in the top 20
When analysing the top twenty businesses this year, what is interesting to see, is the dominance of banking. Indeed 7 of the top 20 organisations this year so far, have been Banks. In contrast, the leading recruiter in the UK for the last few years Amazon, has dropped to 15. With that, they are the only Technology company in the top 20 table.
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