Executive Comment
Insights on the market from the Vacancysoft CEO, James Chaplin
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Deciphering Trump’s Trade Strategy
Following the April 2nd “Liberation Day” announcement, financial markets plunged as the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Brent crude dropped over 10%, while gold prices soared to record highs amid rising volatility and a weakening U.S. dollar.
The AI revolution
AI is the buzzword everywhere, and while more people are becoming familiar with how it can support them, questions remain about its long-term impact on jobs and industry.
Trump, Tariffs and the implications for the UK
Since Bretton Woods in 1944, Western economic policy has favored reducing trade barriers for growth. The world’s largest economy imposing broad tariffs marks a major shift with deep global market implications.
OBR cuts growth Forecast in 2025, set to rise after
Some people blame global forces, for others, the economic slump seen since last summer can only be attributed to the decisions of the current Government. One thing that is clear, is that the economy has slowed down since autumn, and there is set to be an inflationary shock in April, as the impact of the budget takes effect.
Law, AI and the rise of Legal IT
As the tsunami of AI disruption hits the world of white collar work, the legal sector is not immune from its impact. The recent study by Linklaters, where they measured the competency of AI engines to determine whether they were yet able to replicate the functions of a qualified lawyer were noteworthy.
Insights from the Finance Forum
This week we hosted the latest in our quarterly series of events looking at London Financial Services, where a central topic being discussed was the increasing importance of geopolitics on the London economy. Discover the key takeaways from the event with delegates from leading recruitment firms such as Morgan McKinley, REED, and Page.
Insights on the London economy
Last week I had the pleasure of speaking to the London members of the TEAM network, regarding our viewpoint on what we are seeing in the London economy. Following up from the annual summit we organized the week before, this was a chance for TEAM members unable to attend, to get a briefing on what to expect this coming year.
Findings from the Annual Vacancysoft summit
Last week we published the findings of our annual report, analysing the UK Labour Market and were delighted to be joined by industry leaders where we both shared our findings and had a lively panel discussion where we discussed the economic climate, the impact of geopolitical factors and what we think it all means, for this coming year.
Has Putin’s Trump card now been played?
Trump has spoken. Not only to Putin, but in Munich, to the European community also. For European leaders, the notion that a resolution on Ukraine could be negotiated solely between the United States and Russia—without their involvement—is entirely untenable. This is particularly concerning given that the U.S. has explicitly stated it does not perceive itself as a military guarantor post conflict.
Martech and the future of the Marketing profession
Automation through technology is not a new phenomenon. Every generation can cite its own case study of how jobs have been replaced by people. However, historically, the segments of the workforce most likely to be disrupted, have been the blue collar workers, and office based work, has proven resilient against that change.
Is a trade war between the EU and USA now inevitable?
With former President Trump moving to implement his policy agenda, initial measures have already been set in motion. He has declared a state of emergency at the border, leveraging his executive powers to impose tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, with the European Union (EU) now in his sights.
Trump, Tax and the new trade wars
Amid a wave of announcements, the most disruptive to the international order is arguably the president’s declaration that global taxation frameworks must be reformed. Specifically, he plans to double taxes on foreign nationals and companies that engage in discriminatory practices against U.S. businesses.
Hi Tech sectors set to drive UK growth
The announcement by the Labour party regarding increasing investment into AI will be welcome news for the industry. Similarly, with over 1,300 AI companies already established in London The UK tech sector overall is now worth £1 trillion and with VC firms are scaling up their funds, indicating that 2025 is set to be a bumper year for investment as UK-based venture capital firms raised $11.3bn in dry powder, a 59% increase from last year.
Trump, Tiktok and the new ‘America First’ presidency
Fourteen days into the year and the world holds its breath, as Trump prepares to retake control of the White House with a very different policy agenda to Biden. In terms of the economy overall, the USA should therefore continue to outperform other G8 countries, as the combination of tax breaks, deregulation and energy sector growth acts to boost GDP.
A New Year, A New Government – What next for the UK employment market?
With the recent change in government, the shift in economic strategy is evident. The OECD is projecting economic growth for the UK next year; however, their analysis suggests that state-led enterprises are likely to benefit the most. At the same time, companies are delisting from the London Stock Exchange at unprecedented rates, raising questions about what measures are necessary for the city’s revival.
New NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte Calls for ‘War-Time Mindset’ and Increased Defense Spending
In his first public address since assuming the role of NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte emphasized the need for member states to adopt a “war-time mindset” and significantly increase defense spending. Reports suggest that NATO may establish a new spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030, a marked rise from the current 2% benchmark, which remains unmet by eight member nations.
Public Sector Headcount grows by 5% YOY
The revision by the OECD that Britain’s GDP growth for next year will be higher than initially thought will be welcome news to Rachel Reeves and Kier Starmer. Indeed, the increase has been from 0.4% when forecast in May, to 1.1% now. At a time when the Government are facing acrimony over their budget, and business confidence is deteriorating, it is important to understand though, that the reason why the forecast has been lifted is due to the planned investments into the public sector.
Business Optimism falls for the fourth consecutive month
The latest report from the Institute of Directors is out, and the findings show business confidence in the wider UK economy to close to its record low, in April 2020 (-69) at the onset of the Covid pandemic, and marks the second lowest reading of the Index since it began in July 2016. Just as importantly, the study has asked business leaders how they were expecting to be affected by and responding to the changes in employer National Insurance.
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