Executive Comment
Insights on the market from the Vacancysoft CEO, James Chaplin
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Beware the false dawn
As we approach the end of April, the general consensus is that the market is on the up, that Q1 was a busy quarter and there is positive sentiment, looking ahead. When you compare Q1 2024 to Q4 2023, it is not surprising for sentiment to be as such, after all, there was an 18% increase in vacancies quarter on quarter!
Banking Recruitment in London hits 10 month high
Financial Services is one of the largest industries within the UK, and contributes 8.3% to economic output. Overall the Financial Services industry employs over 1m people in the UK, and also runs significant trade surpluses, as a result, what happens in Banking is of direct relevance to the entire economy, and London in particular is of significance.
Is retail about to surge?
With the clocks changing and the days getting longer, there becomes a tangible shift in the mood of the nation. Typically that translates into a pick-up in activity for retailers. Indeed, Since 2021, the only time that Q2 performed worse than Q1 was last year, equally, that did coincide with the sharp downturn in the economy caused by quantitative tightening, which instantly acted to squeeze the economy.
Property picks up as interest rates fall
After all, following 2023, the real estate industry is showing signs of picking up as interest rates fall. Residential Property, in part due to the chronic shortage of new houses being built, is already seeing prices rise. With commercial property, there is a deeper question about what kind of work space businesses want, in this new pandemic period. Insofar that nationwide, occupancy is still below pre-pandemic levels, some areas are doing better than others.
Anti-Money Laundering Vacancies hit 12 month high
As Russia re-elected Putin this weekend, the impact on the UK is being seen in more ways than one. Already, Grant Schapps is talking about the need for further defence spending as we move from a post-war to a pre-war world. Meanwhile, the avenues for money to be funnelled into London are slowly closing, and the determination to minimize access is clear. The decision to double the economic crime levy for very large companies from April, to £500,000 per institution is a reflection of that.
The public sector looks set to shrink this year, what next?
Government pressure on public sector spending sees vacancies drop. At the last count it was estimated there were nearly 5.9m people employed in the public sector, where just as importantly, that number has grown significantly over the last seven years.
Are retailers moving HQ jobs from London for good?
For retail and consumer goods and services, 2023 has proven to be a challenging year. The impact of the changes to VAT has meant that as tourism has returned, the luxury goods sector has flatlined, despite London having more tourists than ever. At the same time, quantitative tightening has resulted in challenges to household liquidity, which has meant there has been downward pressure on disposable incomes.
Could Pensions Funds be the solution for IPOs?
First ARM relists to the NASDAQ and sees their share price double since their IPO. Now more companies are being targeted as the UK struggles to compete in a new world order, where it is no longer able to operate as the financial services capital of the EU.
The Energy Boom is coming
This week, it was reported that the economic downturn in Q4 had meant the UK is in recession. Hardly the news Sunak needed on the eve of two by-elections. Hunt was quick off the mark talking about the fact that overall the economic indicators are positive looking ahead, which is fair comment, equally the fact salary inflation remains high, has led to suggestions that any hope of interest rates coming down in the first half of the year are fanciful.
The High Tech Revolution
Next Tuesday sees the launch of our annual magazine, in which we are focusing on the transformation happening in the labour market as a result of technology.
Direct Line in 2023 leads the way
Direct Line is a company we are recommending keeping an eye on in 2024, after they recorded a 71% increase in vacancies from 2023 compared to 2022.
Surge in Tech sector as London picks up speed
It’s official. The green shoots of recovery in the technology industry are emerging. This past week vacancies hit levels only seen previously a handful of times in the past year. After a challenging 2023, where VC/PE funding became significantly harder to obtain (TMT deals fell 24% on the year before, to the lowest levels in five years) looking ahead, the signs are positive and London in particular is picking the pace.
Are you ready for 2024?
Looking ahead we are forecasting a fast start to the year, with Q1 projected to be the busiest business quarter of the year in terms of new vacancies.
Are we entering a new boom era for Scottish Energy?
Since the war in Ukraine began, the exposure the UK has regarding energy has become ever more clear. The move to renewable energy sources is admirable, equally the challenge has been the seasonality leading to surges and shortfalls, where the steps the Government have taken to resolve this are starting to manifest, with jobs in Energy in Scotland now hitting record levels.
Legal Counsel vacancies hit record levels last month
After what has been a quiet year for legal vacancies across commerce and industry, we have seen a significant surge this November, where the total (170) was higher than any month in 2019, the last year before the pandemic period.
The Autumn Statement and 2024
If the Conservative party are to win the next election, they will need not just a serious implosion within the Labour party, but also for the UK economy to pick up in a way where they can take the credit. Longer term, the UK remains mired in the same issues that it has had for some time now, limited productivity increases, an ever increasing national debt (we last ran a budget surplus over 15 years ago) and ultimately most importantly, GDP per capita falling.
What would a united EU bourse mean for London?
In what could become a landmark speech for Financial Services, Ursula von der Leyen has thrown down the gauntlet in a bid to create a new stock exchange to rival any in the world. Her plan, to unify the bourses of Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Madrid and Milan into one, would result in an exchange which would be the largest in Europe by some distance (including London) and be able to compete directly with New York, or anywhere else.
Post-Brexit and the future of UK Life Sciences
Whisper it quietly, but some of those benefits of leaving the EU are actually starting to materialize. For those in Life Sciences, new regulations taking effect have meant that the MHRA can now fast-track applications, where as a result, approvals can happen in certain instances, within 14 days.
