Executive Comment
Insights on the market from the Vacancysoft CEO, James Chaplin
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Trump, Tiktok and the new ‘America First’ presidency
Fourteen days into the year and the world holds its breath, as Trump prepares to retake control of the White House with a very different policy agenda to Biden. In terms of the economy overall, the USA should therefore continue to outperform other G8 countries, as the combination of tax breaks, deregulation and energy sector growth acts to boost GDP.
A New Year, A New Government – What next for the UK employment market?
With the recent change in government, the shift in economic strategy is evident. The OECD is projecting economic growth for the UK next year; however, their analysis suggests that state-led enterprises are likely to benefit the most. At the same time, companies are delisting from the London Stock Exchange at unprecedented rates, raising questions about what measures are necessary for the city’s revival.
New NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte Calls for ‘War-Time Mindset’ and Increased Defense Spending
In his first public address since assuming the role of NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte emphasized the need for member states to adopt a “war-time mindset” and significantly increase defense spending. Reports suggest that NATO may establish a new spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030, a marked rise from the current 2% benchmark, which remains unmet by eight member nations.
Public Sector Headcount grows by 5% YOY
The revision by the OECD that Britain’s GDP growth for next year will be higher than initially thought will be welcome news to Rachel Reeves and Kier Starmer. Indeed, the increase has been from 0.4% when forecast in May, to 1.1% now. At a time when the Government are facing acrimony over their budget, and business confidence is deteriorating, it is important to understand though, that the reason why the forecast has been lifted is due to the planned investments into the public sector.
Business Optimism falls for the fourth consecutive month
The latest report from the Institute of Directors is out, and the findings show business confidence in the wider UK economy to close to its record low, in April 2020 (-69) at the onset of the Covid pandemic, and marks the second lowest reading of the Index since it began in July 2016. Just as importantly, the study has asked business leaders how they were expecting to be affected by and responding to the changes in employer National Insurance.
COP 29, Climate Change and Cleantech
When the Labour Party came to power, nowhere was the immediate policy shift more stark than in terms of environmental policy. Under Sunak, drilling licenses in the North Sea had been extended, and while the Government had said all the right things in regards to environmental policy, the results were mixed.
Insights from the Finance Forum
With a new Government in situ, last week we organized a private breakfast, with some of the leading recruiters in London, to discuss how the budget and Trump’s victory are likely to impact the London economy going into next year. Financial Services is so critical to the UK, that even for recruiters who are working in other areas, how the industry performs is of key importance. Read on for more.
Is New York Banking Job flow set to eclipse London for the first time?
The first Labour Government in a generation, the biggest increase in taxes since 1993. A bold maneuver to bolster growth, or a misstep, which will cost Labour at the next election? The challenge facing policy makers is real. The size of the national debt is so large, that interest payments alone are now larger than the entire policing budget. And in order to prevent the national debt to stop increasing relative to GDP, the country needs annual growth of 2.5% or more.
How will the Budget impact the job market?
The first Labour Government in a generation, the biggest increase in taxes since 1993. A bold maneuver to bolster growth, or a misstep, which will cost Labour at the next election? The challenge facing policy makers is real. The size of the national debt is so large, that interest payments alone are now larger than the entire policing budget. And in order to prevent the national debt to stop increasing relative to GDP, the country needs annual growth of 2.5% or more.
What would a Trump win mean for the UK economy?
With one week to go, the election remains too close to call. With that, on November 5, the USA will vote and if Trump wins, there will be implications for the UK. Foreign policy is the one area where Trump has internationalists concerned, equally his primary gripe is that NATO members should be paying their way, and the USA is footing the bill for defense in Europe unnecessarily.
VC/PE Funding collapses in Q3
The quarterly funding data from Pitchbook has now been released, and for people in the IT community, it makes grim reading. The deal count in Q3 is down 43% compared to Q2 and deal values have shrunk by an even greater amount. Whilst the VC/PE backed start up community is a small fragment of the UK labour market, funding data is indicative of the wider prevailing economic trends.
Are HR vacancies set to surge?
The return of working from the office, is manifesting, especially in the larger companies, with a combination of carrot and stick now in effect. Refusniks who are successfully negotiating to retain their remote privileges are being told that only people based on site are likely to get bonuses and promotions, whilst others are starting to be counted in and out and disciplined if they are found to be working remotely too often.
Q3 shows a September slump
The countdown to the October 30 budget starts now. 3 months into power, and the priorities of this Government are becoming clear. The question is how to pay for these policies the Government want to implement. For context, the inflation busting public sector pay rises have already added 10BN to the budget, and there are likely to be more to follow. Without productivity linked reform, the danger is that this just results in inflationary pressure, at a time when the Government would be wanting interest rates to fall.
IT Development vacancies still 7% below 2023 levels
Historically, IT has been the disruptor. From Retail to Transportation, the integration of technology has meant that monopolistic incumbents have lost market share to new upstarts, who have carved out their own share of the market. As an example, imagine that 20 years ago, Black Cab drivers could expect to earn £100,000+ per annum. With Uber, the profession has been permanently changed.
Could Atom Valley put Manchester on the Global Manufacturing Map?
In the decade to 2020, the Greater Manchester economy grew by 39% from £53.89 billion to £78.7 billion and it has been one of the major UK city-regions driving job growth nationwide. With that, Manchester is the largest regional financial, professional, and business services hub outside of London, employing more than 280,000 people. With that in mind, the city has made a strategic gambit to attract international businesses, as part of a north-shoring strategy, where as a result, Spinningfield now has companies located there across Banking, Consulting, Insurance, Law and Technology, employing over 20,000 people overall.
ONS data shows contraction in vacancies
“It’s the economy, stupid.” And in that moment, the paradigm by which political discourse became viewed changed. Now with a new Labour Government in situ, the signs are for the most redistributive budget to be seen in many generations. In fact, given the fact New Labour mostly signed up to the tenets of the prior Conservative regime, you would have to go back to pre-Thatcher to understand how this Government seeks to govern.
July sees record vacancies in Life Sciences
After a protracted slowdown in the post pandemic period, the life sciences sector is finally springing back to life. July was the record month this year so far and the signs are positive looking forward. In terms of what had caused the lull, it is worth factoring that with the UK leaving the EU this had meant that the MHRA had to take over regulatory approvals for new trials, and this process has taken time to bed in.
London Law Firm’s continue to recruit
The transactional nature of the London Law Firms means that activity here acts as a good barometer into confidence in the economy. Increases in Law Firm hiring typically can be directly linked to greater demand for their services, either from the Banks, on the one hand, or the Real Estate sector on the other. Therefore the fact that over the last three months, vacancies have been higher this year, than in both 2022 and 2023, is a positive sign, reinforced by a general consensus that the UK economy is performing better than many anticipated, which is reflected in GBP strengthening.
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