As we enter the final quarter of the year, for many people, 2023 has been challenging in a way not seen for several years. Job flow has slowed down, and as a result, for recruiters, revenues have dropped too. In previous posts we have touched on, how vacancies have dropped year on year, equally what is interesting when looking at 2023, is the variance by sector. For some markets, there should now be signs of optimism, where for others, Q3 saw the lowest job totals posted in the year to date.
As the UK economy teeters between anaemic growth, a cost of living crisis, strikes over pay crippling the public sector along with interest rates at generational highs leading to recruitment slowing down significantly when compared to 2022, it can be easy to be negative. Nonetheless, as business leaders, the challenge is to find a way to succeed regardless. In recruitment, that starts with identifying markets which are outperforming others, and segments that still seeing buoyant demand. With that in mind, this week, we have highlighted Luxury Goods as a sector to watch. Why?
In June 2014, the British Government of the time, announced their headline scheme to power growth in the north. “The Northern Powerhouse” was meant to bring together cities across the North, so that they collectively could ‘take on the world’ in the words of George Osborne, who announced the initiative. Upon it being announced, a swathe of initiatives were introduced, to stimulate investment, including the Greater Manchester devolution deal along with the Northern Transport strategy. With that, what we have seen, is a geographic area that had when it was launched, accounted for 16.7% of the population of the country and 13% of the vacancies, see their share of the vacancy market rise to 20% now. Put simply, in terms of job creation, the North is outperforming the rest of the country.
“In a boom market, anyone can make money, to grow when the economy turns, that’s the real challenge.”
The latest economic data to be released, will be of concern for recruiters, more than anyone. The economy is contracting. Whilst there has been a bounce in hiring over summer, this should give room for pause, for businesses, thinking about their next twelve months. Stick or twist, expand or contract? But even if recruitment is tidal, can a recruiter beat the tide? I would argue, with data, they can.
The long-term impact of COVID has yet to be felt on the economy. Equally, the societal change is already here. Work from home and hybrid is now becoming de-rigeur, where for people with London based jobs, it is increasingly a pre-requisite, especially when factoring the commute times. This is creating its own conflict within Financial Services, especially, as banks push for people to be back to work, equally are increasingly flexible about which work location is used. For example, HSBC now employs more people in Birmingham than in London.
