Russian diplomacy can be summed up in five words: agree our terms, or else.

Following last week’s Alaska summit with Donald Trump arriving expecting a breakthrough, he left with nothing more than a photo-op. Vladimir Putin returned with something far more useful: a global stage on which to justify grievances to his allies and domestic audience opposite a nodding American president. For Moscow, a propaganda coup and now, a week later, Lavrov reminds the world how Russians conduct diplomacy.

It is worth remembering how badly Russia miscalculated in the run-up to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Putin’s advisers told him Kyiv would fall, that the government would flee, and that the West would do nothing. They were wrong on every count. Ukraine fought back, the West rallied, Russia found itself in a grinding war it could not win outright and Zelenskky won hearts and minds with his now eternal quote, “I need bullets, not a ride.”

Meanwhile, the cost has been staggering. More than a million killed or maimed. Russia turned into a pariah state. Putin indicted for war crimes. Sanctions have cut Moscow off from the global financial system. Oil is sold at a discount. Europe has broken its dependency on Russian gas. More than half a million mostly young, educated Russians have left, draining the economy of talent.

On the battlefield, Russia’s military has been humiliated. The sweeping gains promised in 2022 never materialised. In the past year, territorial advances have been negligible. Front lines are so fortified that any progress comes at crippling cost. Yet for Putin, the losses are still bearable.

Margaret Thatcher once told Congress that tyrants do not seek war, only victory. Wars, she warned, are caused not by weapons but by aggressors convinced they can succeed at an acceptable price. The task, then, is to make the price intolerable.

Inside Ukraine, fatigue is real. A majority now say they would accept a ceasefire along today’s lines, a dramatic shift from a year ago. The toll is visible everywhere: prosthetic limbs on the streets of Lviv, daily funerals, families mourning sons. But exhaustion has also hardened resolve. Russian is no longer the language of a neighbour. It is the language of an occupier. The dream of a European future burns brighter than ever.

Russia, by contrast, faces a war it can scarcely afford. Defence and security now consume 41% of the national budget. By next year, spending will top 8% of GDP. The National Wealth Fund, worth $183 billion before the invasion, is almost gone. Welfare and education budgets are being cut. Taxes are rising. Outside the arms industry, the economy is suffocating. China may step in, but its help comes with strings.

Ukraine’s path to peace runs through strength. Its allies are beginning to grasp this. Poland, scarred by its history under Russian occupation, is building a 250,000-strong army and spending nearly 5% of GDP on defence. Germany has pledged to double its military spending within five years, hitting NATO’s new 3.5% target by 2029. Across Europe, orders for American weaponry are growing.

Production lines are catching up too. Russia churned out about 2.3 million shells in 2024. By the end of next year, the US and Europe together will be producing more than that. Even if not all reach Kyiv, the days of Russia pounding the front with impunity are numbered.

The likeliest outcome is stalemate. For Putin, whose ambitions once stretched to regime change in Kyiv, that would be defeat. Which means the likely next step is escalation. That escalation could take many forms:

• Further sanctions (500%+) that make every country around the world to choose between the USA or Russia as a trading partner. Without export income, the economy would collapse, fast.
• The Ukrainian cruise missile program proves a success – up to now, Moscow has been unaffected. But what if the Flamingo could cause the kind of devastation on Moscow as seen in Kyiv? How long would Putin be able to keep his war going in the face of this?
• Europeans actively reinforcing the Ukrainian army, and stationing troops within the country, to defend the Western and Northern borders (see the recent threats by Belarus) so more troops can be pushed East for a ‘Big Push’ with this then supported with overwhelming air power.
• Ukrainian AI integrated into Drones leads to it being possible to launch increasing numbers of incursions into Russia without any human losses, leading to unrest in the Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine, which becomes impossible to suppress.

In summary, this war is closer to its end than its beginning. But the ending will redraw Europe once again. Putin continues to gamble on his maximalist vision. In doing so, he risks losing everything. Meanwhile Europe rearms at the fastest pace since the second world war and the defence companies are the biggest beneficiaries. Whatever happens next therefore, Russia will face a new iron wall, which will mean its ability to look west, will be curtailed for at least another generation.

Finally, for Ukraine, the prize remains unchanged. Its people look westward, to the prosperity Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and the Baltic states have achieved through EU membership. No offer from Moscow can compete with that. However, with the countries that joined the EU it is worth noting, prior to them becoming members of the block, they were accepted into NATO first. After all, without military guarantees, investment just can’t happen.

The key question therefore, will the West give Ukraine the help it needs to achieve its ambition. And what value is a military guarantee outside of NATO?

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