Some people blame global forces, for others, the economic slump seen since last summer can only be attributed to the decisions of the current Government. One thing that is clear, is that the economy has slowed down since autumn, and there is set to be an inflationary shock in April, as the impact of the budget takes effect.
The first Labour Government in a generation, the biggest increase in taxes since 1993. A bold maneuver to bolster growth, or a misstep, which will cost Labour at the next election? The challenge facing policy makers is real. The size of the national debt is so large, that interest payments alone are now larger than the entire policing budget. And in order to prevent the national debt to stop increasing relative to GDP, the country needs annual growth of 2.5% or more.
The countdown to the October 30 budget starts now. 3 months into power, and the priorities of this Government are becoming clear. The question is how to pay for these policies the Government want to implement. For context, the inflation busting public sector pay rises have already added 10BN to the budget, and there are likely to be more to follow. Without productivity linked reform, the danger is that this just results in inflationary pressure, at a time when the Government would be wanting interest rates to fall.
