Trump has spoken. Not only to Putin, but in Munich, to the European community also.

For European leaders, the notion that a resolution on Ukraine could be negotiated solely between the United States and Russia—without their involvement—is entirely untenable. This is particularly concerning given that the U.S. has explicitly stated it does not perceive itself as a military guarantor post conflict.

The intensity of the current diplomatic situation has prompted the United Kingdom, European Union officials, France, Germany, and other key European nations to convene urgent discussions to establish a unified response. Notably, this development could mark the most significant foreign policy divergence between the UK and the U.S. since the Suez Crisis. For historical context, that crisis led France to pursue the creation of what eventually became the European Union, to ensure foreign policy priorities would be protected through a supranational grouping. The pressing question now is whether the EU is ready to assert itself in defense of European interests.

However, there is a potential risk that, in its efforts to safeguard its strategic interests, the EU could provoke an unintended reaction. The U.S. administration has already intensified its criticisms of European nations for failing to meet their financial commitments to NATO, demanding increased defense spending. As previously discussed, the EU is working to establish a central defense fund that member states can access to bolster military expenditure. However, if the EU restricts this funding to European defense manufacturers, there is a significant risk of escalating tensions with the U.S. The American position could become more adversarial, questioning why U.S. troops should continue defending Europe when European nations refuse to purchase American defense equipment. This scenario could ultimately lead to a large-scale U.S. military withdrawal from Europe—an outcome that would align perfectly with Putin’s strategic objectives.

For President Trump, the primary geopolitical challenge is increasingly perceived to be China rather than Russia. A prolonged conflict in Ukraine, which keeps Russia diplomatically and economically isolated, allows China to continue purchasing discounted fossil fuels, an advantage that strengthens its industrial base. This comes at a time when the space race is emerging as a critical area of competition between the two superpowers. The three key industries driving this competition—energy, defense, and artificial intelligence—are areas where both China and the United States are global leaders and pulling away from the rest of the world. However, Washington is particularly concerned that China is rapidly closing the gap. The ongoing war in Ukraine is seen as facilitating this shift, further motivating the U.S. to seek a swift resolution to the conflict. A reintegrated Russia could, in turn, serve as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing influence, particularly in the Global South. China has already become the dominant trading partner across Africa and Latin America—an issue of significant concern for U.S. policymakers. The potential erosion of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency is particularly alarming, as such a shift could introduce significant instability into the American financial system, and arguably is inevitable, unless American policy makers act now.

Given the American priorities therefore, the British government is particularly alarmed by the situation in Ukraine. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has indicated that, should Ukraine fall, the UK’s defense budget would need to triple. Furthermore, maintaining a 10,000-strong peacekeeping force in Ukraine would necessitate increasing the size of the UK’s standing army by up to 40,000 soldiers, in order to allow for the necessary rotations. In either case, a substantial increase in defense spending appears unavoidable. Labour leader Keir Starmer has acknowledged these concerns and has already instructed Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves to prioritize an increase in UK defense expenditure, despite competing fiscal demands. While there was a lull in hiring into the defence sector last year after the surge seen in the aftermath of the invasion, with Trump’s hand now declared, the countdown to the spring budget starts now, where increased spending is inevitable, which should translate directly into increased hiring in the sector. Could 2025 see recruitment hit record levels as a result?

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