• Private schools enrollment is significantly lower than Government estimates, and the school year has yet to even end – there is now a very real chance that this policy will cost the Government money as the current estimate is at least 10,000 pupils will enter the public sector system, compared to a 3,000 forecast.
• The mass exodus of HNWs continues, with current estimates being that over 10,000 millionaires have left the UK since the budget, the second highest in the world behind only China. Meanwhile countries like Italy are rolling out their equivalent to the non-dom scheme, making themselves more attractive, whilst for the UK. As a result, a wave of recent studies warn the UK will lose thousands of jobs and as much as £12.2 billion over the coming four years if non-doms leave at the pace that many advisers are predicting.
• Now with companies being asked to pay more, many are now either reducing their headcounts as we can see by the headline numbers, or restructuring to mean less hours for individuals, with Tesco considering closing some of its stores an hour earlier after being hit with a £235m increase in staff costs following changes to National Insurance contributions.
• Corporate taxes are also the highest they have been in a generation (25%) and capital gains tax increases are also acting as a disincentive on entrepreurialism. In this digital era where companies can be formed anywhere online, from Talinn to Dubai, what is the USP of the UK? This is a question the LSE is asking, in a week Wise has announced themselves de-listing, and with 88 companies coming off the exchange in the last 12 months, that’s the highest in 15 years.

In the meantime, the Government is introducing inflation busting spending increases into the public sector, and making seemingly no headway into the productivity crisis in the UK. 25% of 18-24 year olds in the UK are not in education, employment or training, similarly only 48% of adults of a working age in the UK (18-65) are net payers into the tax system, and this number is declining. Now the forecast is, that in the next budget, Reeves will increase taxes again. Amidst all this Mark Rutte has advised Britain, that if we aren’t prepared to make significant defence spending increases, we had better all start learning Russian…

So what can be done?

• Cut the state. Both in size and scope and aggressively target the welfarism culture pervading Britain. Only 48% of working adults being net payers into the system is a sign the system is overloading.
• Reverse the taxes of envy across Non Doms, Private Schools and CGT. The value of having high net worths in the country can be seen in everything they spend and invest into.
• Change corporate tax to focus on global corporations who shift profits, aka the double dutch irish sandwich. As a case study, Cadburys before purchase was paying 100m a year in corporation tax. Now it pays nothing. This is unsustainable, for UK companies to be bought and then pay no UK corporation tax. Maybe a % of declared revenue against the UK entity is the only way to do this.
• Most controversially, change income tax bands, stop the perverse tiers which mean people would penalized for wanting to work full time if they are earning between 100k-120k and have kids. Similarly, maybe it is time to adjust the 0% band to 10%. Quite literally, the country can’t afford this current set up.
• Increase military spending significantly more – if we want peace, prepare for war

Looking ahead, the UK has a window to resolve these issues, the challenge is that Putin is not waiting for anyone, he is marching to his own drum, and if we won’t voluntarily organize ourselves to prepare for the war coming, it will hurt us in ways we can’t even imagine. I regularly travel to Ukraine and see the impact of war on that country, whilst I don’t think Putin would invade the UK, can you imagine the deep sea cables connecting the UK to USA being destroyed and what that would do? And remember there are only 8 of those cables overall to sever… A sobering thought indeed.

May we live in interesting times.

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