With a new Government in situ, last week we organized a private breakfast, with some of the leading recruiters in London, to discuss how the budget and Trump’s victory are likely to impact the London economy going into next year.

Key insights include:

• Certain sectors will be hit harder than others. Retail, Consumer Goods & Services and Hospitality are likely to be the hardest hit. Already job flow in those sectors has slowed down. Conversely, Professional and Financial Services should remain busy.
• There is a real danger of the UK entering recession in 2025, and the chances are Q4 2024 is already set to see a decline in GDP. Layoffs are inevitable as businesses recalibrate their budgets.
• Businesses with an EU focus will probably find 2025 doubly difficult, as the block is likely to enter recession, due to the impact of the tariffs the USA is set to introduce. Conversely, the USA is likely to grow strongly as Trump’s agenda is implemented.
• Demand for Corporate Recruiters is holding steady, equally Q2 2024 was a record low for activity here.
• The Accountancy sector has seen a boom in demand for Tax specialists. The expectation is for this to continue going into 2025, as both businesses and individuals seek to reorganize their affairs.
• Recruitment into Banking front office has picked up, but middle office encompassing risk & compliance has slumped. However, the mid-term trend of companies de-listing from London is worrying, and it is hard to see how to reverse that.
• Fintech is the star performer, and is the best performing sector in London. Interestingly, risk & compliance has picked up as companies are being held to task by the FCA. Otherwise IT roles have picked up in the sector as funding has increased.
• The Insurance sector has also had a good year, with record profits, and overall, has had the smallest drop off since the 2022 boom. Part of this can be attributed to the lack of claims being issued, resulting in 2024 being a bumper year. Equally this could quickly change.
• Law Firms have also been busy, with Real Estate and Employment specialists increasingly in demand, arguably as a direct consequence of the policy platform of the new Government.
• The hike in employer national insurance could also lead to firms pivoting to using more contractors, whilst they decide how best to resource, which dampens vacancies for permanent staff.

Over the course of the session, we analysed the market data to understand along with the sectoral performance, how skills in demand have changed, also which companies are bucking the trend and outperforming their peers in terms of their recruitment this year. Therefore, if you were unable to make the session, and would like a private consultation with me either face to face, or on a video call, then do get in touch to set something up. Or if you want to showcase the market trends to your clients, and would like to use our data as part of your presentation, get in touch, we can organize that for you too. Finally if you would like to attend our next breakfast, then do register with us. Preference will be given to existing clients.