In his first public address since assuming the role of NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte emphasized the need for member states to adopt a “war-time mindset” and significantly increase defense spending. Reports suggest that NATO may establish a new spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030, a marked rise from the current 2% benchmark, which remains unmet by eight member nations.

Rutte underscored that while defense spending has been rising, it remains insufficient and well below Cold War levels. For context, NATO’s European members allocated an average of 3.8% of GDP to defense spending during the early 1980s, prior to the Soviet Union’s collapse. He also criticized the current investment climate, stating that defense companies are often sidelined due to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, which he deemed “unacceptable.”

Rutte’s established rapport with former U.S. President Donald Trump further informed his stance: Europe must demonstrate it is “paying its own way” to secure continued American support. While European defense budgets have increased since 2017, they remain far short of required levels. Rutte invoked the adage “if you want peace, prepare for war” and warned that failure to act could leave Europe vulnerable to a militarized Russia operating in coordination with Iran and North Korea. He asserted that Russia, driven by its war economy, seeks to reclaim former Soviet territories to sustain its economic trajectory.

Some nations have already answered the call. Poland, for instance, has raised defense spending to 4% of GDP and is reinforcing fortifications along the Suwałki Gap, a critical corridor between Poland and the Baltic states. As a frontline state, Poland is acutely aware that any potential conflict will likely involve its territory. Notably, hawkish views on Russia enjoy bipartisan political support in Poland, ensuring this stance remains unchanged regardless of electoral outcomes.

The European Union, meanwhile, is exploring a joint borrowing initiative to accelerate defense spending among lagging nations, such as Italy, which remains below the 2% threshold. While such measures will take time to implement, there are indications that EU-wide defense investment will rise, particularly as Germany transitions to a government with a potentially more militaristic posture.

The UK’s response remains uncertain. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has committed to increasing defense spending to 2.5% of GDP over the next five years, but this raises the question: is it enough? Currently, the UK allocates £53.9 billion to defense, and achieving a 3% target would require increasing spending by over £20 billion annually.

For instance, the British Navy has a critical role in safeguarding deep-sea cables that connect London to major global financial centers. Recent intelligence suggests Russian vessels have been testing technologies to sever these cables, leaving the UK particularly vulnerable as an island nation. Alarmingly, according to the Ministry of Defence, the British fleet has reached a critical state, with only eight of its 14 destroyers and frigates available for immediate deployment. Additionally, reports estimate that nearly half of the UK’s stockpile of Storm Shadow missiles has been sent to Ukraine, necessitating ramped-up production to replenish the country’s arsenal.

If the UK takes Rutte’s warnings seriously, significant growth in the defense sector appears inevitable. This would include scaling up missile production, upgrading naval capabilities, and enhancing overall military readiness. As a result, 2025 could mark a record-breaking year for recruitment across the defense industry.

However, the fundamental question remains: is the British public prepared to accept cuts in other areas of government spending to finance this expansion? Or is the UK at risk of “sleepwalking into war” by failing to adequately fund its military?