Are HR vacancies set to surge?
London HR vacancies in Q3 2024 hit the highest levels since Q1 2023
The return of working from the office, is manifesting, especially in the larger companies, with a combination of carrot and stick now in effect. Refusniks who are successfully negotiating to retain their remote privileges are being told that only people based on site are likely to get bonuses and promotions, whilst others are starting to be counted in and out and disciplined if they are found to be working remotely too often.
Indeed, in a recent study by KPMG, 83% of CEOs surveyed globally expected companies to return to full in-office work within three years, up from 64% the year before. Nonetheless, interestingly, another study by centre for cities, shows that London is well behind other major global hubs (others surveyed included Paris, Singapore, NYC, Sydney and Toronto), with on-site work averaging 2.7 days a week. This is compared to 3.5 days per week in Paris, and 3 days per week in New York. Most interestingly, London is the only city where younger workers are in the office more often than senior colleagues. Factors that impact London include the cost and time associated with commuting, along with (according to the study) a hardened cultural resistance to onsite work, post pandemic.
This is now being amplified by the new employment laws being proposed, which amongst other things plan to enshrine the right to request remote work, where businesses have to justify why they are declining requests. Designed to make work more accessible for people with family commitments, there is a growing tension as a result between Government and Big Business. Indeed, the UK has a significant number of employees working in large companies, which are at the forefront of the move to have work return to office. Indeed, of the workforce, 11 million people work for companies with headcounts of 250 or more, out of 27 million employed in the private sector overall (over 40%,) Similarly, there are other tension points emerging with the new legislation, including the end of zero hour contracts, and full employment protections being applied from day 1.
The danger is that the UK ends up with a French style system, where employment contracts are gold plated, but no company wants to offer them, so continually offers temporary contracts instead, which is a curse that most young people in France will be accustomed to. Put simply, the challenge of legislation is the law of unintended consequences and businesses not wanting to provide full legal guarantees to their entire workforce will find ways to avoid doing so.
Hence this is likely to be a busy time for both employment lawyers and HR departments generally, which is already being reflected in the data. Spotlighting London specifically, Q3 2024 has been the busiest business quarter for HR vacancies in the private sector since Q1 2023, and this is arguably a direct consequence of the policy changes announced by the new Government. Interestingly the key skills in demand are employee relations along with training & learning. In Q4 2024 specifically, 21% of HR vacancies have been for employee relations, whilst 20% have been for training & learning, which is indicative of the priority and focus. Similarly, there has been a clear shift towards training & learning as well (this area made up 18% of vacancies in the first half of the year) which is perhaps indicative of green shoots, as businesses scale up and increase their hiring of junior people, and increase their training budgets accordingly.
Looking ahead, the budget coming up is already acting as a dampener for confidence, and the latest suggestions that there may be an increase to employer NI will be unwelcome news to business owners. The question is will this act as a dampener for companies looking to expand their UK operations? Time will tell.
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The data referenced above has been sourced from Vacancy Analytics, a cutting-edge Business Intelligence tool that tracks recruitment industry trends and identifies emerging hotspots. With 17 years of experience, we have a deep understanding of market activities in the UK and globally.
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